Wednesday, February 10, 2016


 Oh those Republicans! This savant continues with his take on the New Hampshire Primary

Mulshine, Moran and the Ledger editorial staff are jumping for joy as today’s headline “IS IT ALL OVER FOR CHRISTIE. Indeed there was no anti-Christie editorial today instead the Ledger focused on Trump.

Trumps plurality was a forgone conclusion. However take into context with the number of ballots cast he received only slightly more than 1/3 of the votes. That means that a substantial majority number who voted in the primary were anti-Trump.

It is also not clear how many not registered Republicans cast votes as Republicans, since in New Hampshire you do not have to be a registered member of the party to voter in its primary election.

Never the less Kasich the runner up received just ½ the number of votes that Trump got. 5% behind Kasich in a virtual tie for third were Cruz, Bush, and Rubio in that order.

Cruz never expected to do well in New Hampshire, not an evangelistic state. Bush perhaps did better than the polls and saved his campaign for another day. Rubio will need retooling to regain his position as the establishments hope as a white knight.

As for the rest of the Republican hopefuls, Carson who received only 2.3% and Fiorina with 4.2% are dead.

Christie probably also will abandon his campaign although he did do slightly better than the polls with a 7.6% vote. He may hope that he could become a compromise if Trump has not received a majority of committed delegates. At this point in time it will most likely be one of the three Governors based on their “administrative experiences” something that Rubio does not have.

Cruz cannot get the nomination without a majority of delegate, since he has alienated almost all of the political involved Republicans.

According to a Washington Post Column;” And while it's possible that Rubio or another establishment-backed Republican could catch fire in South Carolina 10 days from now, it seems more likely that the race turns into a showdown between Trump and Cruz. The good news for establishment Republicans: There's a way out of this mess -- 45% of GOP voters last night want the next president to have experience, versus 50% who want an outsider, according to the exit polls. The bad news: Five candidates (Kasich, Bush, Rubio, Christie, even Cruz) essentially split that 45%, while Trump took the lion's share of the 50% wanting an outsider. “ It will be an interesting time to July; if the Russians Iranians, ISIS or North Koreans don’t create a crisis that will change the playing field.

1 comment:

  1. The only way Rubio or any other establishment backed republicrat could catch fire in SC is if they were smoking at the gas pump!