Monday, February 29, 2016
Sunday, February 28, 2016
The best time to listen to a politician is when he's on a stump on a street corner in the rain late at night when he's exhausted. Then he doesn't lie. Theodore White
Leap day 2016 and local, state and national politics are becoming wilder.
Locally the “new Democrats dominated committee has made its selections which if successful would give it control of the Council.
Gloria has chosen not to compete but Councilwoman Tracey Brown will seek another term as the “At Large Council person” without the Committee’s backing.
Sunday Alma Blanco announced that she will seeks Taylor’s 3rd Ward seat running as a team with Brown.
On the state level Christie who recently was blasting Trump has now joined him actively in Trump’s campaign. The Ledger must be jumping with joy, it now still has "copy" to fill the few pages that are not devoted to legal ads.
As for the Donald he has now professed having no knowledge about David Duke, a person who in 2000 he said he would not be associated with, or the KKK. He has also quoted a phrase attributed to Mussolini “ It is better to live one day as a lion than 100 years as a sheep.”; defending it as an interesting quote not an admiration of the Italian dictator
We can only hope that Trump does not have a majority at convention time and by chance a responsible nominee will emerge from the Republican Convention. We will have no choice from the Democrats. Woe is the Republic.
Friday, February 26, 2016
I am glad that I did not write a blog for this morning (Friday). I had watched all of the Thursday night’s circus, aka the Republican Debate #10, and decided that Rubio was a winner but perhaps it will matter little
Then came the bombshell today; Christie is supporting Trump. Once again a politicians words are worth no more than the air into which they have been expelled. What was said yesterday is forgotten.
Perhaps Christie has adopted this new champion in retribution for Rubio’s attacks on him before the New Hampshire primary which seemed to have cost Christie his support there for Rubio’s gain.
Starting this Tuesday. Super Tuesday, and up to the Ides of March the fate of the Republican nomination process may be decided. This map from the Wall Street Journal illustrates what is at stake.
It is to be noted that many states allot their delegates proportionally to votes received whereas others it is “Winner takes all”. In Texas for a candidate to receive any delegates he must poll at least 20% state wide, and also in each district for that district’s allotment. Other big states like Florida go to the winner. Note that it is projected that Trump will sweep Rubio's Florida.
It was either too good or too improbable to be true. Sandoval has stated that he is not interested in becoming a member of SCOTUS "at this time". Perhaps he is looking forward to a Presidential run in 2020.
Wednesday, February 24, 2016
The Republicans have reiterated that they will not even consider any Obama nomination until after the November elections leaving an 8 member Court split evenly between conservatives and liberals. The potential of a tie and no decision in important cases is a real one.
There have been times in the past when Scotus has function with an even number of Justices There was a period when there were 10. In fact the Constitution does not mention any number of Justices. FDR tried to increase it to 15 but even his Democrat Congress would not approve.
Obama could by executive power select a temporary Justice when Congress is not in session this summer who would serve until Congress approved a new Justice. Obama could also submit a number of names from which Congress could select one or up to all perhaps enlarging the Court.
The latest rumor is that Obama is seriously considering Nevada’s Republican Governor Sandoval whom the Senate unanimously confirmed Sandoval as a district court judge in 2005 during George W, Bush’s Presidency. Sandoval stepped down from the bench in 2009 to run for Governor. He has a high degree of national popularity.
|My opinion too|
As one commentator wrote;” As for last night's contest in Nevada, Trump won with 46% of the vote, Rubio got 24%, and Ted Cruz got 21%. But to us, the biggest story from last night was the record GOP turnout (75,000-plus). Yes, it was chaotic, but Nevada becomes the fourth-straight GOP contest where we've seen record Republican turnout. There is a revolution going on in the 2016 race, but it's (largely) coming from Donald Trump and his supporters.”
Yes there are many who are now ready to concede the Republican nomination to the Donald. By March 15 some 40% of the states will have selected their delegates. It may be too late for the warring tail-runners to settle on a single candidate.
The same time period will show if Sanders has any true strength. He is finally assembling a team of foreign policy advisers. He has skirted any mention on that subject.
Clinton and Sanders as of today are tied in elected delegates. That will change dramatically this Saturday when Hillary sweeps South Carolina.
The big kicker is that Hillary has about 450 super-delegate votes to Sanders’ 80. These are the political elite who are not beholden to the public on the nomination issue, but can control the convention is the race is close.
The sad fact is that there are no good alternatives in either party.Also prior to November Hillary's emails and the Clinton's Foundation may surface enough to haunt her, even to question her eligibility.
Trump's delay in releasing his tax reports suggest that there is something that is not kosher with his financial boasts.
The next three months may not be Oh Hum.
Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Instead of being original on the 23ed of February, I thought i would copy (copyright forbid) this Rasmussen Report about the state of the nation.Most voters continue to favor stricter border control over granting legal status to those already here illegally and believe amnesty will just encourage more illegal immigration.
Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Tuesday, February 23, 2016
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters think gaining control of the border should be the priority when it comes to immigration reform. Thirty-four percent (34%) disagree and say it’s more important to grant legal status to those already living here. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
These findings are consistent with regular surveying for the past four years. Prior to 2012, support for stricter border control was generally in the low to mid-60s. The number who say legalizing the status of those already here is more important reached a high of 38% in December 2012 but fell to a recent low of 30% in April of last year.
Fifty-two percent (52%) of voters believe providing a pathway to citizenship for those in this country illegally will just encourage more illegal immigration. This finding has ranged from 48% to 58% over the past year. Thirty-one percent (31%) disagree, while 17% are undecided.
Seventy percent (70%) of Republicans - and 51% of all voters - support GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump’s plan to build a wall along the Mexican border to help stop illegal immigration.
(Want a free daily email update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 17-18, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Sixty-one percent (61%) of voters think the government is not aggressive enough in deporting those who are in this country illegally, another view most have held in surveys for years.
Most Republicans (79%) and voters not affiliated with either major political party (65%) say gaining control of the border is more important than legalizing the status of workers already here, but most Democrats (57%) take the opposite view. Just 35% of Democrats consider border control more important.
While most GOP and unaffiliated voters think providing a path to citizenship will just encourage more illegal immigration, Democrats by a narrower 45% to 33% margin disagree.
Men and those 40 and older put more importance on border enforcement than women and younger voters do.
Sixty-seven percent (67%) of voters who consider border control more important believe providing a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants will just encourage more to come illegally. Fifty-three percent (53%) of those who believe legalizing the status of those already here is more important disagree.
Most voters continue to believe the current policies and practices of the federal government encourage people to enter the United States illegally. Most also continue to oppose President Obama’s plan to exempt millions of illegal immigrants from deportation.
Seventy-two percent (72%) believe the federal government is not aggressive enough in finding those who have overstayed their visas and sending them home.
Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton has called for free lawyers for children who have entered this country illegally, and a law proposed in the state of Maryland would expand that to include women who are here illegally as well. However, most voters oppose the federal government providing taxpayer-funded lawyers to women and children who entered the country illegally from Central and South America to help them fight deportation.
Support for state rather than federal enforcement of immigration laws is now at its highest level in several years.
I thank all who sent me birthday wishes. Four more to go.
Sunday, February 21, 2016
And now there are FIVE! Perhaps it would be best to say that there are THREE plus one and a half. Carson is no longer a factor and may be just staying as a candidate to spite Cruz who could get Carson’s evangelist voters. At best Kasich could pick up most of the 21% votes that did not to the big three. He can never receive a sufficient number of delegates to be a nominee possibility, so his staying in the race is probably to be in a position to make a VP deal.
I have to agree with the concerns of a reader who wrote to my February 20 blog; “Do we really think there is a chance for President Trump? I think I'm scared.”
I think though that Trump will not receive enough electoral votes in an election. The only chance he has of beating the Democrat nominee is if (1) Hillary’s email problems become an albatross, or (2) if it is Sanders the majority of the country is anti-socialism.
Political pundit Sabato wrote “The old question becomes THE question: Can Trump expand his ceiling to 40% and above, as the number of opponents dwindles? --Even if he can’t, can he continue to rack up wins while the Keystone Kops (otherwise known as the GOP establishment) try to get their house in order”
It is possible that the Republican elite who hate Cruz and fear Trump will throw all their resources behind Rubio but he must win some of the primaries to be a viable Presidential candidate.
Of the total 2,380 Republican delegates, 1,719 are pledged and elected at the state level. Of the 661 unpledged Many of the other unpledged delegates automatically claim the delegate status either by virtue of their position as a party chair or national party committee person
Although Hillary is winning in every state some of the Delegates go to Sanders her margins have been less than anticipated and if Sanders wins some states Clinton may not have enough delegates to secure the nomination.
Out of the 4,763 total Democratic delegates, 794 are super-delegates, which are usually Democratic members of Congress, governors, former Presidents, and other party leaders. They are not required to indicate preference for a candidate there are 3,253 pledged delegates. Which leaves another 712 who can hold the power of election.
Nine days from now 13 states will decide their delegates with another significant number by the 15th. After then a few big states will be left to have an impact in the conventions. New Jersey’s June primary will probably be anti-climatical.
For various unimportant reasons today’s blog was delayed. However Monday I have a crack of dawn appointment that will occupy most of the day. It is most likely that if I post on Tuesday it will be late afternoon.