Tuesday, February 2, 2016
IOWA CAUCUSES IMPACT.
Thoughts about the Iowa Caucuses. In the long run it will not make a damn bit of difference in the ultimate outcome of the nominee races.
Yes Sanders did tie Clinton, and Trump did not win but except for a remote harbinger of the future what happened Monday will be meaningless. What Cruz can do outside the evangelistic states could be the answer.
This is because the number of delegates allotted to the Democrat Convention is 44 out of 4763 delegates and 2,382 is needed win the nomination. The Iowan Republicans have a total of 30 delegates out of 2,472 delegates to the Republican National Convention, and the winner will need 1,237 votes. Thus Iowan Republicans actually have a better representation at their convention than the Democrats do.
What will be more critical in how these races develop will be the round of Primaries on the horizon; New Hampshire next week, then South Carolina's Feb20 Primary and the Nevada Caucuses, Democrats on the 20th Republicans the 23rd.
This will be followed by 13 Primaries or Caucuses on March 1st and 6 more on the 8thand 15 more by the end of the month.
By the end of March the Republicans will have a total of1258 delegates selected and the Democrats 2717 by the end of April the numbers are 1596 and 3694 respectively.
Our Primary and California’s on June 4th will be anticlimactic and most likely will have little impact unless no one candidate has collected a majority of committed delegates. That should only be a possibility for the Republicans since there are only two Democrats running.
The results of the February caucuses will be only to eliminate those Republicans who have no chance and do not hope that there could be a brokered convention which could be a possibility if Cruz and Trump plus Rubio continue to split the votes nearly 1/3rd each. The first 15 days of March will be an indicator.
Clinton should gather a substantial lead over Sanders by the 15th of March and unless those emails continue to suggest that they will be such a liability that she will lose the White House and Congress. In that case there will be smoked filled rooms; Sanders will not be the Democrat nominee if the party leaders have a say.