Sunday, February 21, 2016
ABOUT THE NOMINATIONS
And now there are FIVE! Perhaps it would be best to say that there are THREE plus one and a half. Carson is no longer a factor and may be just staying as a candidate to spite Cruz who could get Carson’s evangelist voters. At best Kasich could pick up most of the 21% votes that did not to the big three. He can never receive a sufficient number of delegates to be a nominee possibility, so his staying in the race is probably to be in a position to make a VP deal.
I have to agree with the concerns of a reader who wrote to my February 20 blog; “Do we really think there is a chance for President Trump? I think I'm scared.”
I think though that Trump will not receive enough electoral votes in an election. The only chance he has of beating the Democrat nominee is if (1) Hillary’s email problems become an albatross, or (2) if it is Sanders the majority of the country is anti-socialism.
Political pundit Sabato wrote “The old question becomes THE question: Can Trump expand his ceiling to 40% and above, as the number of opponents dwindles? --Even if he can’t, can he continue to rack up wins while the Keystone Kops (otherwise known as the GOP establishment) try to get their house in order”
It is possible that the Republican elite who hate Cruz and fear Trump will throw all their resources behind Rubio but he must win some of the primaries to be a viable Presidential candidate.
Of the total 2,380 Republican delegates, 1,719 are pledged and elected at the state level. Of the 661 unpledged Many of the other unpledged delegates automatically claim the delegate status either by virtue of their position as a party chair or national party committee person
Although Hillary is winning in every state some of the Delegates go to Sanders her margins have been less than anticipated and if Sanders wins some states Clinton may not have enough delegates to secure the nomination.
Out of the 4,763 total Democratic delegates, 794 are super-delegates, which are usually Democratic members of Congress, governors, former Presidents, and other party leaders. They are not required to indicate preference for a candidate there are 3,253 pledged delegates. Which leaves another 712 who can hold the power of election.
Nine days from now 13 states will decide their delegates with another significant number by the 15th. After then a few big states will be left to have an impact in the conventions. New Jersey’s June primary will probably be anti-climatical.
For various unimportant reasons today’s blog was delayed. However Monday I have a crack of dawn appointment that will occupy most of the day. It is most likely that if I post on Tuesday it will be late afternoon.