Saturday, January 23, 2016
THE REPUBLICAN OUTLOOK
With all the global warming and the hot air prior to the Iowa Caucuses one would not think that we would have a crippling blizzard** that dropped 22" on my partially sheltered front walk.
Indeed over the past 5 decades before Saturday there had been only one major snowstorm in January. That was in 1996. All the others have been in February and I believe that in 2010 there were two less than a week apart. Obviously something caused this storm this January.
Perhaps it was the latest Trump arrogance when on Saturday Donald Trump expressed confidence that he will be nominated despite is rivals attempts, saying “he could stand on New York's Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody," and still not lose voters."
Cruz continues to tout himself as the “anti-establishment white knight” dedicated to Christian values We should not forget that the worse President in my lifetime, Jimmy Carter, was an anti-Washington establishment candidate.
This brings us to the “establishment” hopefuls, Rubio, Bush, Kasich Christie, and their chances as of today in upsetting the Trump/Cruz takeover of the Republican Party in July.
The latest national polls gives Trump a 33% % of the Republican voters, Cruz 20% and the Establishment26% with Rubio leading at 13% and our governor ties next with Bush at 5% each. There is about 21% with no preference.
As it stands no one today has enough support to win the nomination on the first ballot in which the delegates are committed to support their candidate. Then the horse trading will take place
Of course it is 6 months till Cleveland and much can happen. There is the Iowa Caucus in a little over a week and then the New Hampshire primary followed by South Carolinas in February,
Super Tuesday takes place March 1, 2016when primaries will be held in Alabama, Alaska (GOP), Arkansas, Colorado caucuses, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota caucuses, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, and Virginia.
These 15 states may well alter the picture.
Although the latest polls in Iowa show that Trump has a 29% over Cruz’s 26% and Rubio’s 11% commitments; Saturday the influential Des Moines Register announced “Sen. Marco Rubio has the potential to chart a new direction for the party, and perhaps the nation, with his message of restoring the American dream,” the newspaper tweeted. “We endorse him because he represents his party’s best hope.” Many feel that will have a significant impact on the Caucus
In New Hampshire Trump has a big lead of 32% with Kasich’s 12% leading the establishment’s total of 39% Cruz is an also runner with 11.5%
South Carolina is Trumps stronghold with 35% to Cruz’s 20%. Here Rubio’s 11% leads the total establishment’s 26.5%.
The next 37 days will go a long way in clearing up the Republican picture.
** The worse winter storm(s) I remember was the Dec 22, 1947 blizzard followed by the New Year's Eve ice storm that took out the power.