Friday, January 15, 2016

THE DEMOCRATS



Thursday night the amount of hot air in North Charleston SC was enough to turn the building into a blimp. It was good  comedy that overran is allotted time period by 30 minutes.

However today’s blog is about “dem damn Democrats" (lats night GOP). There are only three in the field; Hillary Clinton, Bernie sanders and Martin O’Malley the ex-governor of Maryland.

In all recent Polls Clinton leads with varying numbers as seen in this chart. The numbers for each are percentages; the Pop. Is the size of the pool.
Pollster
Dates
Pop.
Clinton
Sanders
O'Malley
1/9 - 1/13
696 A
54
35
4
1/10 - 1/10
890 LV
65
26
9
1/8 - 1/10
909 RV
49
32
3
1/7 - 1/10
389 LV
48
41
2
1/4 - 1/10
2,619 RV
52
37
2
1/4 - 1/8
397 RV
43
39
2
1/4 - 1/7
360 LV
54
39
3
What do the different figures mean? Only one has a large enough data base to be significant. There are two others that are large enough to be diagnostic, all the others are meaningless except for propaganda purposes. The Gavis/OAN poll is too aberrant from all the others to be accountable.

Clinton seems to have a large lead but it may be sliding. The significant NBC poll shows her to be only slightly over 50% and Sanders seems to be gaining.

As one consolidator pollster wrote: “Not all polls are created equal, so our forecasts are calculated based on weighted polling averages. The weights account for the quality of each poll based on its track record and its methodological standards. They also account for sample size and how recently it was conducted; recent polls are weighted much more heavily than older ones. Polls are also adjusted for house effects, which is a tendency to consistently show different results for a candidate than the average of other polls.”

Clinton has a great deal of baggage going back to her Arkansas days which might give any Republican candidate munition for a successful smear campaign.

Until JFK broke the WASP barrier, no Catholic had a chance to be President. The color barrier was final broken in 2008. However religious is still rampant in America. Sanders will not receive party leadership acceptance because is he not only Jewish but is too socialistic for the rank and file.

O’Malley will never collect a majority of delegates but might get enough party support in various primaries where the numbers are proportionally determined to go to the convention in a bargaining position.

What may happen at the convention?

If Clinton does not have the nomination in hand by Convention time and O’ Malley has a sufficient number of pledged delegates there is a distinct possibility that because of Hillary’s baggage the party powers that be might engineer a brokered nomination of Biden.



2 comments:

  1. The Clintons are the ultimate smear campaign ... even going as far as calling the families of those killed in Benghazi LIARS. She is the LIAR.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What will be the reaction to the new movie just released and a new book? How will the Clontons spin these?

      Delete